13 Visions of the Future of PCs

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In 2003, I wrote a piece for PC Format making my predictions for the next ten years for the PC. We’re half way through now so let’s see how I’m doing so far:

Prediction СЕКРЕТУТКА: The PCI bus will die

Anything that can’t be integrated directly into the motherboard will be turned into a USB or FireWire module, saving all sorts of problems with IRQ allocation and timing conflicts and making motherboards smaller and cheaper.

The PCI bus hasn’t gone yet, but pretty much the only thing still routinely plugged into it is the sound card.

Status: Give it another 5 years

Prediction 2: The Pentium 5 will put two processors on a single chip

In the days of the hyperthreading P4, the obvious next step was to mount two separate processor cores on a single silicon die.

And why stop at two? Quad core CPUs are common now and the PS3 has eight cores (even if one of them is just used to increase production yields).

Status: Bang on

Prediction 3: An end to cables

Existing proprietary protocols for cordless keyboards and mice will be replaced with Bluetooth systems and transceivers will be standard on all new systems. We’ll also have wireless speakers and wireless monitors.

Using Wi-Fi to beam screen updates using Windows Powered Smart Display technologies turns out to be more complicated than simply making computers small enough to integrate directly into the monitor.

Status: It’s called an iMac

Prediction 4: The CRT monitor will be obsolete

2003 was the last year that new PCs shipped with CRT monitors by default.

Can you even buy a CRT monitor now?

Status: Well, duh!

Prediction 5: Laptops will all use projection displays

Instead of carrying a fragile and heavy TFT laptop, a device the size of a pack of cards will project an image onto the back of the seat in front of you on the aeroplane or onto a blank sheet of A4 on your desk.

Umm, yes. Not quite sure what I was thinking there. Must have got a bit carried away.

Status: Not going to happen. Ever.

Prediction 6: Screens will become horizontal

A piece of paper flat on the desk is a much more natural way to work than craning up at a vertical screen. Thinner LCD displays will just get laid horizontally for reduced eyestrain and better posture.

The trouble is that this entirely relies on stylus or touch based interaction because no one has enough room on the desk for a horizontal screen and a keyboard and mouse. This also needs tougher, flexible screens, perfect handwriting recognition, a massive price drop and some more compelling reasons to ditch the existing paradigm than slightly improved ergonomics.

admin @ August 27, 2008